Results presentation: HPD regions (for individual parameters)
This page allows you to view highest posterior density (HPD) regions for
any parameters you choose. You may also set the percentage at which
to calculate these regions.
Accessing this page
This page may be accessed from the format
and parameter selection page when "HPD regions" is selected as the
results presentation type.
Description
HPD regions (computed at a particular percentage) indicate the most likely
calendar date range(s) for the parameter in question. BCal forms
the interval (or intervals) by choosing the years with the highest posterior
probabilities and summing their probabilities until the total probability
included in the intervals corresponds to the prescribed percentage.
In this manner, any year included in a reported HPD region has a higher
posterior probability than any year outside the region.
A table is shown containing the parameters you selected in the format
and parameter selection page. The HPD regions (in cal BP or BC/AD
depending on your calendar setting within the configuration
page) for each parameter are shown. If the region for a parameter
is given as "no ranges" it means that the HPD region couldn't be calculated.
This may happen when an exact date for that parameter was given by you
as absolute prior information.
By default HPD regions are calculated at 95%. You may calculate
them at another percentage using the form below the table. Simply
type in the new percentage and select "Submit", the HPD regions will be
recalculated with the percentage you provided. You may return to
the format and parameter selection
page by selecting the "Back" button. Your choice of format and parameters
will be restored.
